I am kind of in limbo about this. I have been doing very very well the past month, with only a few spots where i was running bad. I am thinking i am on a heater, but then again, i really don't know what "heater" is in sngs. i know that running uber bad is hard to do in low limit sngs. with low level sngs the play is just baddddd, and one first makes up for 3 losses.
I use to run bad for a long period of time, or so i thought. The truth of the matter was i was just playing my -B or C grade game for an extended period of time. I let my losses effect me, and chased them. I believe this is why i have been a break even player for the majority of the time i have been playing poker. Its hard to make money when any losing session causes you to play like ass for the next 4 days. Thank God those days are over. I am using my overkill bankroll management, and taking breaks/dropping down when things go bad.
So in a lot of ways just by cutting out the playing when on mini tilt is a major reason i seem to be running well. I could be just running what is really normal, i just never knew what normal was. The cool thing about sngs is you really do not have to get any cards to do good in them, all tho it helps a lot. You can steal your way up to a big stack at the bubble, get your villains into a contest for second, and play heads up with a 4-1 chip lead. I think the low limit sngs are just so profitable that it is kind of hard to run that bad in them, as long as you keep your emotions in check.
With all of that said, i still think i am on a heater. Things are just going so great now. I thank God for how well i am doing, and not getting to emotional with poker. Everything is just clicking, and going in the right direction. i am flat out crushing the 6.50s on pokerstars. The skill level jump between them and the 3.40s is nearly non existent. The players are the same, but every now and then you find someone that knows what they are doing. Even then you can use his push/fold strategy against him. Just push into him with anything because he knows he should fold all but is huge hands.
As far as the 6.50s on full tilt...one word....yum.
I played 3 on full tilt today and won 2. Granted i made a questionable play that put me as a ~130 chip stack on the bubble, i came back to take it down. I was able to get big money in the pot as a 15-20% favorite many times. By that i mean when the bubble busted, and we all had stacks of over 15 bb, i was able to get players to call off 18+ bbs while they were a 15-20% dog. i really look for spots like this. Getting big money in as a decent favorite, and when you are putting yourself in a great spot to take 1st, makes up for many of the times when you get in ~8 bbs in as a small dog. I often think about these things, as in "oh well i got 22 bbs in as a 70% favorite so that makes up for a couple of the times when i am all in with a 40% chance to win." I am really not sure how all that evens out in the long run, but it seems to me that i get in more money in as a favorite that i do as a dog. Even when i get it in as a dog, it is usually after i make a profitable push, and get called.
I kind of got side tracked, here is more proof that i need to get ready to move over to full tilt...I did the sharkscope thing again where i picked a random table from FTP and stars and checked the stats on the whole table. Only this time i did a 16 on stars, and a 22 on full tilt. I really was shocked at the results. I figured they would be somewhat even beings the full tilt sng was about 1/4 bigger buy in wise. Full tilt had one player with a ~7% roi, and one other small winner. The rest were all losing players, and 2 had the fish bowl icon by them. The stars 16 turbo on the other hand had 2 players with negative ROIs and the rest were all winning players with one or two winners over a large sample size.
Full Tilt is where the money is, plain and simple. I will still play at stars because of all the great things they have to offer. It is going to be a good idea to grind up my money on stars, because of the MTTs, Satellites, FPPs, and customer service. I love full tilt, but they are way behind stars in many respects. I have heard some negative things about cash outs on full tilt also. Even tho this isn't much of a concern now, i will be making enough money in the future to make some cash outs. Nothing could be worse than grinding up cash, then having to go threw 17 flaming hoops to get it. I probably end up transferring money to another player on full tilt, and getting them to send it back to me on stars. This will allow me to get money easily.
I am a bankroll puss, but this is the plan as of now. Grind up to ~300 dollars on FTP and make the jump into the 11 dollar turbos. This is a somewhat drastic move for me (even tho it is wayyyy low risk beings i will have ~30 buy ins) but i know i can beat the 11 turbos on FTP. I really think that the skill level in the 6.50s on stars is equal, if not greater than the 11s on FTP. I will still be playing the 6.50s on stars around 30-50% of the time. I plan on making my way up the latter of sngs playing one level lower on stars that i do on full tilt. So when i am doing the 22 turbos on FTP, i will be playing the 16 turbos on stars. I have no desire to jump into a situation where i am neutral or possibly -ev. This brings me to another point.
I think most players play a level or two higher than they should. I think this problem plagues the losing players, the break even guys, and winning players. I read the blogs of big money players, and they just over estimate their skill level. One player is trying to make the move from sngs to the mid stakes cash games. He is killing the 1-2 nl and from their things just go down hill. He is a good enough player that he could move up the ladder in a decent amount of time. Another player just started doing well in big buy in live mtts in the middle of 2006. He had a great year, and he can play. There is no denying that. But i don't think he has what it takes to thrive in the poker world. With the high cost of buy ins, traveling, hotels, ect. the live mtt player needs to be cutting down cost when ever he can. This guy has done very well in satellites for the main events he plays in. To me it seems like a guy who is making his living mainly off of big buy in mtts should be jumping at the chance to get into his main game for 1/10th the price, especially if he is good at satellites. Yet the player i am talking about has stated that he really doesn't think they are worth his time. He is passing on a very lucrative situation, just because of the idea that he is too good for it. Call me crazy, but spending a few days a month playing super satellites where you could possibly cut down money spend on entry fees seems like a very good idea. but he doesn't want to. money is too small, even tho he can crush...and the scary thing is, he really hasn't proved anything on the live mtt scene. Yes he has won a large sum of money, but it is only enough money to live on the trail for a few years. Passing up on easy spots, and only wanting to go into harder games may catch up to him.
Why put yourself in a situation where you are at the very best a small winner, or break even skill wise? people could be making a very nice profit, and learn the game at the same time, if they would just drop down in stakes. Its an ego thing, and a money thing. Not wanting to "waste time" playing a lower stakes game. Granted they will move up the ladder faster than a guy only plays in games that he can kill, but at what cost? Tons of emotional stress, highs, lows, for what? As soon as they learn enough to beat the level they are trying to get to, they will probably just do it all over again trying to go higher. I respect going after a challenge, but that is not what i am in this for. I want to make money. Money i can enjoy. For me that means playing in games where i am clearly +ev. If i look around the the table and don't think i am one of the top 2 players, i really have no desire to be there.
I hope i stay humble. Ari said a few things in the pocketfives.com pod cast he did that really show my point. He said that he isn't just itching to jump into the next 100r on stars, because all of the players are going to be good. even tho he is going to be +ev, he sees that is time is better spent else where. Why go against a field of mostly pros when you can go on auto pilot and crush easier MTTS. My thoughts to the tee. In my view why jump up stakes just because i can afford it. Why not just beat the level i am at for a nice number, then take my shot. I will take a lot of money out of every level of sngs on my way to the top. I have pulled enough out of the 3.40s to be very well rolled for the 6.50s. I am going to take a large number out of the 6.50 - 11 dollar turbos before i ever think of moving up. I am going to buy some things i need, and really help my self out with the money. Then when i feel like i can really beat the next level, i will give it a shot. If things go good, when i will stay there. but if i am having trouble, i will just drop back down and go back to making money. no harm done. the time will come when i can beat the next level, so why force it. Might as well make some money and have fun while you are learning the game.
God Bless,
Takeover_inc
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